Since President Trump returned to office in January 2025, a gallon of regular gas has averaged $3.472. That's a fraction of a cent above the $3.471 average across Joe Biden's four years, according to AAA data reported ZeroHedge. The gap is tiny, but it comes just a week before the November 3rd midterms, and Trump campaigned on bringing gas back under $2 a gallon. As of Monday, the national average stood at about $4.29, up from $3.05 a year ago.

The main driver is the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which began in February and has disrupted crude shipments, refining and fuel exports across the Middle East. Gas prices have climbed roughly 43% since the fighting started, even though the U.S. is still the world's largest oil producer. Diesel has risen even faster. It now averages around $6.35 a gallon after setting an all-time high of $6.53 in September, as shortages of refined fuel squeeze global markets.

Drivers shouldn't expect much relief before Election Day. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan put the average at $4.24, down 22 cents from a month ago but still $1.24 above last year. He expects gas to stay above $4 and diesel above $6 through the vote, citing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and tight global refining capacity. The administration has tried to boost domestic refining and secure more diesel. Industry executives have warned that restarting idle refineries takes time, which leaves high fuel costs weighing on household budgets heading into the election.